Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-05-25 90733.241903 95690.116174 100643.054293 105960.007222 111502.697953 117106.902964 123198.115070
2025-06-01 83119.462690 90752.992941 98590.635713 107228.781723 116471.289201 126053.210704 136727.160455
2025-06-08 76657.585444 86051.811766 95908.002483 106998.206366 119107.259050 131905.234896 146431.598837
2025-06-15 72878.858194 83712.802264 95284.001189 108526.314306 123224.665622 139001.739074 157179.357617
2025-06-22 69387.639516 81337.615811 94302.518777 109360.809205 126314.458658 144756.556218 166278.169308
2025-06-29 65982.767566 78796.080312 92897.671292 109496.811611 128426.029795 149263.924885 173859.348061
2025-07-06 62959.651276 76489.526929 91577.258353 109556.434103 130300.065539 153383.294871 180909.686535
2025-07-13 61351.006299 75692.963555 91875.784776 111371.387062 134097.912019 159629.163779 190349.421018
2025-07-20 59760.511966 74813.399002 91988.121053 112891.500774 137495.043159 165380.235792 199212.993195
2025-07-27 57964.942438 73594.177665 91618.223604 113771.494791 140086.946833 170163.740572 206943.796123
2025-08-03 55879.101872 71932.511991 90640.471782 113855.004107 141677.998552 173736.606926 213238.130208
2025-08-10 54071.015357 70529.454464 89901.612472 114159.130820 143477.987223 177518.830585 219761.681850
2025-08-17 52225.906104 69037.497540 89025.270533 114282.354938 145067.422916 181083.225544 226093.080707
2025-08-24 51079.103344 68366.864706 89113.917092 115552.314192 148028.578652 186289.301542 234414.653955
2025-08-31 49241.346295 66763.402290 87996.169241 115289.562920 149084.587794 189184.582592 239956.960271
2025-09-07 48434.119549 66427.944816 88420.638248 116908.923507 152432.351986 194848.727657 248864.916511
2025-09-14 47330.924216 65670.607962 88280.487533 117794.408481 154855.810184 199385.844990 256419.392275
2025-09-21 45947.108148 64503.043420 87580.269244 117938.655831 156329.957410 202747.225880 262538.792775
2025-09-28 44600.845442 63339.744874 86845.128141 118001.936078 157674.218187 205932.423501 268440.550762
2025-10-05 44151.963464 63336.479898 87581.009852 119929.451086 161364.149685 212030.773271 277971.806454
2025-10-12 43593.405217 63164.419450 88081.228923 121543.575471 164656.722051 217648.126476 286938.113470
2025-10-19 42774.669026 62616.074862 88068.825324 122477.881484 167074.901413 222176.782116 294567.452419
2025-10-26 41642.064135 61609.924401 87426.379169 122566.540591 168390.643752 225312.787780 300457.726953